by Liam Fahey (Editor), Robert M. Randall (Editor)
Unter Szenarioplanung versteht man eine spezielle Methode der Vorhersage zukünftiger politischer, ökonomischer und demographischer Entwicklungen, die das Funktionieren eines Unternehmens beeinflussen können. Diese Technik wird hier von renommierten Vorreitern auf diesem Gebiet ausführlich beleuchtet - so lernt der Manager, verschiedene Implikationen plausibler Ereignisse und Einflüsse systematisch zu durchdenken. (11/97)
Front Jacket
Being able to anticipate and shape the future is the goal of every leader. "Fortune favors the prepared mind," wisely advised Louis Pasteur more than 100 years ago. So, how well do modern institutions prepare? In recent decades, leaders have often been caught unaware by momentous events-oil shortages and gluts, the collapse of the Soviet empire, and technology that quickly transformed whole industries. The age-old question is, how can organizations learn to anticipate and find opportunity in such sudden crises? The future will always be unpredictable, but with the right techniques it can be imagined and managed. Leading companies and governmental units have learned a way to think smarter about the future. The authors of Learning from the Future reveal how these innovative organizations harness imagination and strategic management techniques to create scenarios that simulate future opportunities and threats. Using these scenarios to test current decisions and get a jump start on building new capabilities for the future is a rich learning experience. This book makes preparing for unpredictable futures a practical part of every manager's job. It shows how scenario learning readies companies for industry and market evolutions and customers' new needs. Scenario learning envisions how industry segments may gain or lose profit potential, how certain technologies could dominate a market or fail to be accepted, how new trends could propel mass markets, what circumstances could derail a merger. This new foresight methodology is a critical source of business advantage. To help readers construct truly useful scenarios and learn from them, this book offers the latest insights of 25 internationally known scenario developers. Their case studies explore rapid technology innovation, regulatory destabilization, actions by new or traditional competitors, and investment opportunities. The authors' previous book, The Portable MBA in Strategy, brought you the brightest and best ideas for winning in the marketplace of today and tomorrow. Now, by combining these proven methods of strategic management with scenario thinking, Liam Fahey and Robert M. Randall take you on a fast forward expedition-Learning from the Future.
Back Jacket
Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager's toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today's leading practitioners in the field. -Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." -David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning-the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." -David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." -Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." -George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Author Biography
LIAM FAHEY, PhD, a consultant to a number of leading North American and European firms, is an adjunct professor of management at Babson College and a visiting professor of strategic management at Cranfield School of Management in the United Kingdom. Dr. Fahey has authored or edited six books on management, most recently The Portable MBA in Strategy (Wiley), with Robert M. Randall. ROBERT M. RANDALL heads a San Francisco-based publishing business that operates management magazines; he writes management articles, books, white papers, and brochures. He and Liam Fahey are collaborating on their third book, Strategic Management Tools (Wiley).